Considering that the Kearns/Lopez trade is still so contentious among reds fans, Josh inspired me to figure out what impact the trade has had on the team on the field of play.
Here it goes...
The trade took effect July 13th, 2006.
On 7/13/06: 46-44………win pct. = .511
7/13/06 through 10/1/06: 34-38………win pct. = .472
On June 18th, 2007: 27-44……....win pct. = .380
Total after the trade: 61-82…….win pct. = .427
So, before the trade the Reds were playing above .500 ball, on pace for 82 wins. For the rest of the season--with Majewski, Clayton, and Bray on the roster--they played nearly 4% worse (a 93-loss season if averaged out).
Last year, then, if they'd played full seasons with both rosters they would have won 13 more games with the pre-trade roster (82-80 vs. 69-93). Interestingly, this would have put them only a game behind the Cardinals. Considering the schedule is so weighted towards division play, it is not unrealistic to think it could have been a longer season for the Reds.
This year is a different story. Clayton is gone. Bray hasn't pitched. Majewski is, well, terrible. Harris is with the D-Rays.
The resultant new roster includes two main new faces: Josh Hamilton and Alex Gonzalez. Even with these two, the Reds winning percentage is a dismal .380. (For those keeping track, that means that as of tonight they are on pace for a 100-loss season.)
So, since the trade the Reds have a total winning percentage of .427--8.4% worse than pre-trade. Irrespective of Kearns and Lopez's individual numbers this year, which are admittedly terrible, the Reds team performance (baseball is, after all, a team sport) has suffered considerably.
That being said, I want to make it clear that I do not wish Kearns and Lopez were back. I commend Wayne Krivsky for getting Josh Hamilton and Alex Gonzalez and do prefer them over the other two. It is simply about value and the Reds failed to take get as much as they could have.